Economics, Portfolio Optimization, and Technical Analysis
Joined: 28 Dec 2005
|Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2007 8:55 pm Post subject: February Correction (incomplete)
International investment position:
Income & inequality Europe & California
Health Care - taxes - financial crisis
Fiscal & monetary - socialism - reagan
Changing Democrat party - Racism - Borrowing from future
Trump - Trade War
Kansas - Connecticut - Minnesota - Wisconsin
Study - Energy Efficiency
Econ school - methodology - output gap
AT&T - GM - Corporations
More Work - Less Entitlements
U.S. shale oil boom
Immigration and War on Drugs
As the labor market tightens and real wages rise enough, there will be more capital spending. Also, the aging capital stock will be upgraded. Moreover, the children of the Baby-Boomers (born in 1982-00) will be entering prime-age (35 to 54, after the Generation X Baby-Bust, born in the mid-Ď60s to early Ď80s) and older workers will work longer, to also boost productivity. Pro-business policies, e.g. lower taxes and less regulation, also helps. Therefore, we may have accelerated growth over the next few years and settle at a higher growth rate than the past few years. However, capital spending may not be a big boost, given the low capacity utilization rate.
Moreover, many states and cities raised their minimum wages for 2018:
Perhaps, not much of the repatriation of profits held overseas will go into share buybacks, given the high level of stock prices. Instead, it may be used mostly to pay-down domestic debt, increase dividends, and for acquisitions and capital upgrades. Also, there may be more foreign investment.
Minimum Wage - Capital Spending
In the U.S., we offshored higher paying manufacturing jobs and imported lower skilled workers. Only 8% work in manufacturing today compared to 22% in 1970. It seems, many more American workers compete with tens of millions of poor immigrants and their children. Moreover, the Information Revolution created many high paying jobs, including millionaire employees, while the real national minimum wage declined substantially and low wage workers apparently captured none of the productivity gains.
Depression and Low Productivity
Slow Recovery and China
Unlike the Vietnam War, foreigners paid for the Iraq War, because of the new world order. The Saudis and OPEC required countries to buy their oil in dollars. So, countries had to exchange their goods for dollars to buy oil. Consequently, the U.S. was able to maintain the most powerful military in the world, by far, which added to U.S. GDP, boosted R&D spending, and provided valuable spin-offs for the private sector. The exchange was the U.S. would use its powerful military to police and maintain peace and stability in the world in exchange for consuming more than producing in the global economy and in the long run. Remarkably, the U.S. has been able to maintain a strong international investment position:
The employment-population ratio increased from 59.8 in December 2016 to 60.1 in December 2017. Perhaps, older workers, who earned more were replaced by younger workers earning less. Over time, real wages will rise for younger workers. Nonetheless, the minimum wage hasnít kept up with productivity gains and should be raised.
Also, I suspect, out of control health care costs depressed wages, since those costs were absorbed in compensation. Moreover, itís possible, less health care was used, because of higher deductibles, which would slow health care inflation. Furthermore, itís possible, the booming stock market facilitated early retirements.
Economy since 1973:
Causes of Financial Crisis
Subprime Lending - Healthcare
Since States cannot expand fiscal policy through budget deficits, it wouldíve been better to freeze government spending for several years and any budget surplus returned to taxpayers. And, since low income workers will likely receive little of the tax refund, the state minimum wage should be raised.
Obama Recovery - Health Care
Jobs Per Month - Productivity
California & Wisconsin
Minimum Wage - Living Standards - Immigration
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