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Next Week Trading (Sep 17th)

 
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arthur
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:57 pm    Post subject: Next Week Trading (Sep 17th) Reply with quote

Next Week Trading (Sep 17th):

It's somewhat amazing both the Dow and Nasdaq rallied to their Jan top downtrend lines (see page one of Chart Room). I tend to believe, the market is not in position to rally much further without a significant pull-back.

Currently, both Oscillators 20 day MAs are at high levels, which is typically bearish. Moreover, the volatility indices are at low levels, TICK is short-term bearish, and TRINs are slightly overbought. IJS (small cap index) may be completing a triple top at just over 109 (see page three of Chart Room). The Transport Index (page two of Chart Room) has been making new highs, which in "Dow Theory" means the Dow will follow soon. If oil prices fall sharply next week, then it's possible the Dow may rally several hundred points. However, the Transport Index RSI is severely overbought. QQQ couldn't rally much above its 200 day MA, currently at 35.81, last week. Moreover, SPX is near the top of a downward channel (which I'll post in the Market Overview section this weekend).

Perhaps, most of the "end-of-the-quarter window dressing" is over, and earnings warnings may pick-up over the next week or two. The Fed is also expected to raise its Fed Funds Rate Tue. Some notable earnings next week are: Mon ADBE RHAT PLMO Tue LEH Wed BSC FDX ALOG and Thu AGE RAD. Perhaps, there will be an excellent opportunity for an Oct straddle.

I plan to continue buying mostly INTC long-term calls on dips and QQQ short-term puts on bounces. Perhaps, eventually, I'll make big gains on both. Also, I'll be looking for other excellent trading opportunities (see recent Top Stock Picks).

My portfolio is about $820,000 including about $630,000 in cash.

Calls Contracts

INTC Jan 20 2005 300
RMBS Jan 15 2005 20
MRK Jan 45 2005 50
SEBL Jan 7.5 2005 50
PSFT Jan 17.5 2005 40

Puts Contracts

QQQ Oct 36 2004 200
QQQ Nov 36 2004 400
OIH Oct 85 2004 20
OIH Jan 80 2005 20

Portfolio at $500,000 on Jul 1st, 2003
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