arthur Guest
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Posted: Tue Sep 14, 2004 1:01 pm Post subject: Sep 14th Trading Log (Recap and Wed Trading Plan) |
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Sep 14th Trading Log (Recap and Wed Trading Plan):
I traded QQQ and EBAY puts, and bought a net bullish ORCL straddle. The low volatility market continues to be a tough trading market. Normally, I would shift my portfolio more into cash until volatility picks-up. However, it seems, I'm somewhat trapped in my options. I know internets, e.g. EBAY, are difficult to trade. However, I expected (and still expect) more volatility. Both Nasdaq and the Dow rallied to their "primary" downtrend lines (see page one of Chart Room), and then turned back. The TICK 100 unit MA fell below its 200 unit MA, which may be bearish short-term. Both TRINs (in Chart Room) have become less volatile recently, and both volatility indices (VIX and VXN) are near 2004 lows. The Nasdaq Oscillator 20 day MA is still at a high level, which is severely overbought. The Fed meets next Tue, and the 10 year bond yield fell sharply recently. It seems, the bond market doesn't believe another Fed hike is needed in Sep. I believe, the EBAY Oct puts are safe, since EBAY could fall to 90 quickly. Also, the QQQ Oct 35 and 36 puts have huge leverage, in case QQQ falls to 35 or lower within a week. INTC is still relatively undervalued compared to QQQ (see chart on page five of Chart Room). ORCL is currently up and QQQ is down in afterhours. Perhaps, there will be a big down day this week to sell some puts for big gains.
My portfolio is about $790,000 including over $505,000 in cash.
Calls Contracts
INTC Jan 20 2005 100
INTC Apr 22.5 2005 200
ORCL Sep 10 2004 200
PSFT Jan 17.5 2005 20
Puts Contracts
QQQ Oct 35 2004 1,000
QQQ Oct 36 2004 800
OIH Jan 80 2005 20
ORCL Sep 12 2004 50
EBAY Oct 85 2004 100
EBAY Oct 90 2004 200
EBAY Oct 95 2004 50
Portfolio at $500,000 on Jul 1st, 2003 |
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