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Letter to the Editor

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2005 8:42 pm    Post subject: Letter to the Editor Reply with quote

Tech Talk With Art

Lou, I don't know if you read all my posts. I called
the top of the bond market (although, a few weeks
early), called the top of the oil market about a week
ago (I like to think my timing has improved), and I
called the end of the bull market today (with posts
yesterday that suggested it already ended). Of course,
I could be wrong. Nonetheless, I plan to be very
cautious (better to miss a money making opportunity
than lose lots of money). That clip below is based
purely on technical analysis, which is not a real
force. The U.S. economy slowing (which pulls the rest
of the world's economies) will cause oil prices to
fall. Tomorrow, options expiration will skew direction
(perhaps, it will be a very volatile day). Keep in
mind, that it's possible, there could be a Black Mon,
where the Dow falls over 500 points. That would
generated a huge amount of volatility to trade May
options for huge gains. I don't know if it's wise to
be a hero at this point. However, I posted some
relatively safer stocks, e.g. BBH CBJ and PD. Arthur

> Hi Art
> Market is looking like a mess!
> I have some defensive plays that are holding up
> beautifully (e.g. JNJ)
> and looking for opportunities as stocks tank.
> I think we are going to get a great opportunity in
> gold and energy here.
> (Not as confident in the energy but these companies
> are getting amazing earnings).
> If cyclical bull is ending as you
> said........historically resource stocks do best in
> last
> leg of a bull market.
> Here's an interesting clip I just read:
> Tech Talk continues to favour the energy sector. A
> 10% drop in the price of crude oil has taken its
> toll on the sector during the past two weeks. On the
> other hand, technical evidence continues to suggest
> that high energy prices are here to stay. A good
> example is the technical action by stocks that
> should benefit if the increase in the price of
> energy is a short term phenomenon. These stocks
> logically should have bounced nicely higher starting
> about two weeks ago when crude oil started to move
> lower. However, if high crude oil prices are here to
> stay, they should have moved in a flat to lower
> trend. In actual fact, they moved significantly
> lower. Examples include Norfolk Southern (a
> railway), Delta Airlines (air transportation), Ryder
> Trucks and Fedex (air and truck).
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