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[arthur]

A long-term support or resistance level is normally a strong level. SPX rallied above the multi-year Fibonacci 50% level at 1,160 late last year (see circle in first chart), and held it (also, see bottom of page two of Chart Room). The first chart is a SPX daily chart that shows short-term support at 1,164 (Parabolic SAR buy signal, i.e. the dark red dots). Short-term resistance is around 1,192 (20 and 50 day MAs). MACD turned bullish recently (although a bullish crossover is uncertain). The second chart is a DIA daily chart that shows short-term support at 103 3/4 (Parabolic SAR buy signal). Short-term resistance is at over 106 (20 and 50 day MAs). Also, there's a large gap at over 107 (see square). The third chart is a SPX weekly chart. Last week was the first up week in four weeks. The three major index ETFs, SPY DIA and QQQQ, created Bullish Homing Pigeons Fri. DIA created a Homing Pigeon recently that lead to a rally (see circle on second chart).

There are few economic and earnings reports next week. The only important economic report is the weekly Unemployment Claims on Thu. Notable earnings next week include: Tue RIMM and Wed AA BBBY and MON (perhaps these stocks will rally into earnings). Consequently, oil prices may drive the stock market next week. Currently, oil is at $57.27 a barrel, after hitting an all-time high at $58.10 a barrel two weeks ago.

Apr Max Pain Expirations suggest the market will rally over the next two weeks (Max Pain works over half the time on day of expiration, and works well over half the time within two weeks of expiration). Currently, the value of puts over calls on the major indices are high, which is bullish. Also, current prices are below their Apr Max Pain points, which are: SPX 1,190, OEX 565, DIA 106, and QQQQ 37. So, Apr Max Pains suggest the market will be higher sometime within the next two weeks.