PeakTrader.com

[administrator]

Jan 26th Trading Log (Updates):

Current Trade: Bought 10 SPY Dec 400 puts at 22.5 -------- It looks like a SPX breakout is underway, although a fake out is possible. There are many positive economic and technical indicators (e.g. real GDP growth, labor market, bullish cup and handle, etc.). Yet, inflation slowed, generally, because oil prices fell from $120 to $80, inflation may be sticky going forward, stock fundamentals are still overvalued, and may be heading into profit recession. So, I've basically been out of the market, until there's a better trading opportunity, e.g. at an extreme, although I missed some trading opportunities, e.g. on a rising trading range. My best guess is a SPX breakout won't amount to much, e.g. rising to only 4,250, and then falling to 3,200 perhaps in second half of year. I plan to add more puts as market rises.

My portfolio is over $2,515,000 including $2,477,200 in cash.

Calls Contracts-Shares Long

DNA 10,000 shares

Puts Contracts-Shares Short

SPY Dec 400 2023 10

Portfolio at $100,000 on March 1st, 2018. Portfolio stop loss suspended. Scaled up and adjusted portfolio. Both prior portfolios, since early 2000s, rose initially and substantially, and then failed quickly in “irrational” market “melt-ups," where stocks can go straight up month after month.