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May 27th (Forecast and Trading - Slowing Inflation?)

 
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PostPosted: Fri May 27, 2022 1:55 pm    Post subject: May 27th (Forecast and Trading - Slowing Inflation?) Reply with quote

May 27th Trading Log (Forecast and Trading):

Inflation: The Core PCE price index y-o-y, which the Fed has a target of 2%, rose from 1.5% in February 2021 to 5.3% in February 2022. It declined to 5.2% in March and 4.9% in April (reported this morning), including a stunning drop in non-durable goods prices. If inflation continues to slow, particularly with supply disruptions easing, the Fed will tighten the money supply much less than the market expects and a sustained rally will take place. Trading: I've been mostly and generally correct about trading ranges and direction and also picking the right stocks, and buying and selling options. Moreover, it was done with little risk, because I've been very heavily in cash and don't hold the options long. Also, a volatile market is a forgiving trading market and there has been lots of volatility, e.g. 100 point SPX intraday swings. So, remarkably, I've been on a winning streak, since September last year (See prior Trading Logs and Plans). I've been wanting to take a break from trading for quite a while, but saw too many opportunities. I'll be taking at least a few weeks away from trading. I'll continue to post weekly updates.

My portfolio is about $1,570,000 including $1,569,500 in cash.

Calls Contracts-Shares Long

None

Puts Contracts-Shares Short

None

Portfolio at $100,000 on March 1st, 2018. Portfolio stop loss suspended. Scaled up and adjusted portfolio. Both prior portfolios, since early 2000s, rose initially and substantially, and then failed quickly in “irrational” market “melt-ups," where stocks can go straight up month after month.
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