arthur Guest
|
Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:03 pm Post subject: Next Week Trading Plan (Aug 21st) |
|
|
Next Week Trading Plan (Aug 21st):
The semiconductor stocks may continue to lead the market higher or lower. On Fri, SMH and INTC failed to lead the market higher. So, if SMH and INTC fail to lead the market higher again next week, then I'd expect the downtrend to resume. However, there may be profit taking in oil prices, which may fuel the market higher. Also, on Wed morning, the Durable Goods Orders economic report will be an important leading economic indicator. The intermediate-term technical indicators turned bullish last week (see page two of StockCharts site). Also, the major indices MACDs turned bullish (MACD has been a very good technical predictor). However, the oscillators (at bottom of page one of StockCharts site) are overbought, and VXN is on a short-term sell signal. Also, the intraday SPX and OEX charts (top of page three of StockCharts) are near short-term overbought levels. So, if OEX rises to 540 on Mon, I plan to buy Sep puts, and if the market dips early next week, I'll sell some puts, or if SMH and INTC fall, I may keep the puts and buy more SMH and INTC long-term calls. If PSFT falls early next week, I'll buy Sep calls. KKD reports earnings Thu. I may also buy NEM (gold) and OIH (oil) puts on small bounces, etc. I'll post Top Stock Picks for Mon this weekend.
My portfolio is about $905,000 including about $735,000 in cash.
Calls Contracts
SMH Jan 32.5 2005 200
INTC Oct 20 2004 100
INTC Jan 22.5 2005 100
RMBS Jan 10 2005 10
KKD Sep 12.5 2004 20
PSFT Oct 17.5 2004 50
Puts Contracts
DIA Sep 100 2004 100
DIA Sep 102 2004 150
QQQ Oct 35 2004 100
OIH Oct 75 2004 10
EBAY Sep 80 2004 30
EBAY Sep 85 2004 10
PSFT Oct 17.5 2004 10
Portfolio at $500,000 on Jul 1st, 2003 |
|