Joined: 28 Dec 2005
|Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2009 8:01 am Post subject: Conventional Wisdom
|I was listening to someone (a non-economist) who seemed unbiased and competent talking about the U.S. in general. However, every time he talked about the U.S. economy, he had no idea how completely absurd his statements were. Yet, I'm sure, to most people he made perfect sense. Conventional wisdom is often created by these type of people.
Even economists can be wrong about the economy. For example, one economist stated Japan's aggressive fiscal policy during its Lost Decade prevented a bad situation from becoming worse. During that Lost Decade, Japan averaged 1% real GDP growth per year. However, without the government crowding out the private sector, real GDP growth could have been much higher.
Conventional wisdom believes the U.S. education system is inferior to many countries, because of low test scores. However, is that really true?
Singapore scores very high on test scores. The education minister explained why Singapore citizens underperform Americans in real world achievements: The U.S. education system teaches students how to think. The Singapore system teaches students how to take tests.
A Chinese student, who could have attended the best university in China, was rejected at a university in Hong Kong. Why? The educators concluded he didn't really know anything beyond taking tests.
If someone doesn't really understand the past, will he be correct predicting the future?
If a prediction remains static in a dynamic system, will his prediction turn out true?