arthur Guest
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Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2004 12:19 pm Post subject: Aug 18th Trading Log (Recap and Thu Trading Plan, Updated) |
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Aug 18th Trading Log (Recap and Thu Trading Plan):
Basically, I bought calls on dips, and sold calls and bought puts on bounces. The Unemployment Claims report tomorrow before the market open should move the market. Without a pick-up in employment, the country is in danger of falling into recession, because of high debt levels and the low savings rate. DIA Aug Max Pain is 101, and DIA overshot that level today. Perhaps, the Dow will trade between 10,000 and 10,100 for the rest of the week. The major indices MACDs turned bullish, and the CBOE Put/Call is bullish. However, TICK MAs are overbought, and volume isn't strong. Next week should determine if the downtrend will continue or if the market will stage a big bounce (catching the bears off-guard again). However, with the major indices below their 200 day MAs, I tend to believe the market will fall rather than continue to rise. I plan to take advantage of volatility to build-up cash, and wait for the market to overreact.
My portfolio is about $910,000 including $790,000 in cash.
Calls Contracts
SMH Nov 32.5 2004 100
SMH Jan 32.5 2005 200
PSFT Sep 17.5 2004 50
PSFT Oct 17.5 2004 50
Puts Contracts
DIA Sep 100 2004 300
DIA Oct 100 2004 50
PSFT Oct 17.5 2004 10
Portfolio at $500,000 on Jul 1st, 2003 |
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