PeakTrader.com Forum Index PeakTrader.com
Economics, Portfolio Optimization, and Technical Analysis
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 
Log inFast Charts

Continuing Consolidation

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic     PeakTrader.com Forum Index -> Market Forecast
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
administrator
Site Admin


Joined: 28 Dec 2005
Posts: 10286

PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2007 5:29 pm    Post subject: Continuing Consolidation Reply with quote

Intermediate-term technical indicators, e.g. the NYMO 20 and 50 day MAs, and daily NYSI, remain bearish, while sentiment indicators, e.g. the CBOE Put/Call 50 and 200 day MAs, remain bullish. Consequently, SPX may continue the trading range throughout the summer before moving higher.

Last week, SPX rose (over 27 points), which was expected, given the new quarter and Fourth of July holiday. Over the next two weeks, SPX may consolidate or rise higher into earnings season, consolidate or pullback, and then rise into the next quarterly earnings cycle.

The one-year weekly chart below shows SPX has traded mostly between 1,500 and 1,530 over the past eight weeks. A pullback may be limited, e.g. to the 40-week MA (blue line). Also, OIH (black line) has been more volatile than SPX (not shown in thin weekly line), although it edged higher on oil staying above $70.

Consequently, OIH puts may be a safer trade than SPX puts next week. If OIH opens high or rises Monday, i.e. above 181, Aug 180 puts may be buys. Of course, it's safer to sell the puts if OIH pulls-back into the high 170s next week than wait for a possible larger pullback.

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic     PeakTrader.com Forum Index -> Market Forecast All times are GMT - 8 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by PeakTrader 2.0.8 © 2001, 2002