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Mixed Intermediate-Term Market Signals

 
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2007 4:46 am    Post subject: Mixed Intermediate-Term Market Signals Reply with quote

A new quarter begins Monday and the Fourth of July holiday is Wednesday, which tend to be market bullish. Intermediate-term technical indicators, e.g. the NYMO 20 and 50 day MAs, and the daily NYSI, have been unreliable over the past year, since the CBOE Put/Call 50 and 200 day MAs continued to rise to all-time highs. Currently, intermediate-term indicators are bearish, while the CBOE Put/Call MAs are bullish (e.g. the 200 day MA currently at 0.96 is only slightly below its all-time high at 0.97 set in March). Given the mixed signals, SPX should be avoided, although it may test its 200 day MA, currently 1,430, in July. Consequently, OIH may be a more predictable trade over the next few weeks, since it remains severely overbought. If OIH rises above 178 next week, Aug 175 puts may be buys. The puts may be sold in the low 170s within two weeks.



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