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Conflicting Indicators

 
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 01, 2007 6:06 am    Post subject: Conflicting Indicators Reply with quote

The first three-year chart shows NYMO and NYSI are in intermediate-term downtrends. Normally, when the NYMO 50-day MA (red line) reaches negative 20 or lower, SPX bottoms. Currently, the NYMO 50-day MA is roughly zero. Also, when the daily NYSI reaches roughly negative 500, SPX bottoms. Currently, NYSI is above 660.

The second three-year chart shows the CPC 200-day MA (red line) continues to reach all-time highs, which is SPX bullish, since the CBOE Put/Call is a contrarian indicator. Also, remarkably, the CPC 50-day MA (blue line) is currently near its all-time high that was set in Jul, before SPX rose over 200 points.

The conflicting signals suggest a period of higher volatility. VIX (in second chart) fell to and traded around 10 over the Jul to Feb SPX rally. Currently, VIX is about 15 and may trade in a higher and wider range. Consequently, SPX may be in a volatile range, e.g. between 1,300 and 1,450 over the next few months. After intermediate-term indicators bottom, SPX may rally to new highs, since sentiment indicators may remain extremely SPX bullish.





Trump and Obama economy

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2019/04/u-s-economy-keeps-growing-2#comments

Kopits including homicide rates - skating rink

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2019/04/whos-getting-the-rents#comments

Jobs per year - jobs recovery

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2019/04/thoughts-on-the-next-recession#comments

China Trade Strategy

https://www.aei.org/publication/the-case-for-free-trade-and-the-case-against-protectionism-redux/

Trump Poker and Optimism

https://www.aei.org/publication/another-4-pinocchios-for-tariff-man-an-f-for-trade-101/

80% of market intangible assets - China Raping

https://www.aei.org/publication/the-economic-impact-of-trumps-trade-war-higher-prices-and-reduced-income-for-the-usa/

Minimum wage - Trump complains no free trade - raising trade volume

https://www.aei.org/publication/tuesday-afternoon-links-32/

China and steel

https://www.aei.org/publication/900000-per-job/

IP theft example

https://www.aei.org/publication/capitalism-will-save-us-if-only-we-let-it/

German scientists - private property

https://www.aei.org/publication/a-year-of-trade-losses-in-u-s-china-tariff-war/

Net international investment position and China

https://www.aei.org/publication/monday-evening-links-12/

Private and public crowding out

https://www.aei.org/publication/the-dangerous-doctrine-of-equity/

Climate change models

https://www.aei.org/publication/meet-16-year-old-swedish-greta-thunberg-patron-saint-of-the-church-of-climate-change/

California’s low wage workers

https://www.aei.org/publication/suppose-you-live-in-americas-most-liberal-state-now-suppose-you-live-in-the-state-known-as-poverty-capital-of-america-but-i-repeat-myself-2/#discussion

Tax cuts and Tariffs and Trade

https://www.aei.org/publication/who-pays-the-trump-tariffs/#discussion

Tariffs to help American businesses

https://www.aei.org/publication/tariff-mans-tariffs-largest-tax-increase-in-decades/#discussion

China growing market - how tariffs work

https://www.aei.org/publication/who-pays-for-tariff-mans-tariffs-on-chinese-goods/#discussion

Tariffs costs - economic prediction - China theft and article

https://www.aei.org/publication/cost-of-tariff-mans-trade-war-831-annually-per-household-according-to-the-ny-fed/#discussion

Household socialism

https://www.aei.org/publication/quotation-of-the-day-on-the-failure-of-socialism-with-maybe-one-exception/#discussion

Tariffs 19th century - Aldi stores

https://www.aei.org/publication/creative-destruction-how-a-cheap-brutally-efficient-grocery-chain-is-upending-americas-supermarkets/#discussion

Trade Barriers - USA vs China

https://www.aei.org/publication/how-important-is-international-trade-to-each-us-states-economy-pretty-important-for-most-us-states-2/

How China benefits over U.S. trade - lowering barriers - no go on EU car tariffs

https://www.aei.org/publication/thanks-tariff-man-more-collateral-damage-and-trade-war-casualties-tractor-makers-hit-hard/

Lowering barriers and 2020 election

https://www.aei.org/publication/tuesday-evening-links-17/

Trump and zero sum

https://www.aei.org/publication/quotation-of-the-day-on-trumpisms-most-destructive-tendency/
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