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Conflicting Indicators

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 01, 2007 6:06 am    Post subject: Conflicting Indicators Reply with quote

The first three-year chart shows NYMO and NYSI are in intermediate-term downtrends. Normally, when the NYMO 50-day MA (red line) reaches negative 20 or lower, SPX bottoms. Currently, the NYMO 50-day MA is roughly zero. Also, when the daily NYSI reaches roughly negative 500, SPX bottoms. Currently, NYSI is above 660.

The second three-year chart shows the CPC 200-day MA (red line) continues to reach all-time highs, which is SPX bullish, since the CBOE Put/Call is a contrarian indicator. Also, remarkably, the CPC 50-day MA (blue line) is currently near its all-time high that was set in Jul, before SPX rose over 200 points.

The conflicting signals suggest a period of higher volatility. VIX (in second chart) fell to and traded around 10 over the Jul to Feb SPX rally. Currently, VIX is about 15 and may trade in a higher and wider range. Consequently, SPX may be in a volatile range, e.g. between 1,300 and 1,450 over the next few months. After intermediate-term indicators bottom, SPX may rally to new highs, since sentiment indicators may remain extremely SPX bullish.

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