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SPX possible Oct range

 
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arthur
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 9:06 am    Post subject: SPX possible Oct range Reply with quote

The first chart (daily year-to-date) shows SPX recently bounced off its 50 day MA, which is now rising, and may be a bullish development. However, SPX is near the (upper) downtrend line, which it rallied towards on lower volume Fri than Thu. Perhaps, SPX will trade between its 50 day MA and downtrend line in Oct. The Oct options expire in 10 trading days. However, if SPX rises to the downtrend line, that may be an opportunity to buy SPX or OEX (S&P 100) Oct puts. Moreover, SPX may complete an inverse head & shoulders, which is a bullish pattern, sometime in Oct, and then be in position to rally.

The second chart (monthly since mid-1993) shows VIX is at a low level (the lowest level since 1995, and 9.31 was the lowest level since 1990). Consequently, there is little fear in the market, which is typically bearish. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, which suggest a big move within the next few months.




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