arthur Guest
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Posted: Thu Sep 16, 2004 3:48 pm Post subject: Updated Recap and Fri Trading Plan |
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Sep 16th Trading Log (Recap and Fri Trading Plan):
I made a huge tactical mistake today bailing out of EBAY puts too early. I found myself at one point, this morning, with far more risk than I wanted. Nonetheless, I don't miss being out of EBAY put positions, since they've been mostly losing positions. Internets are normally tough to trade, and I typically avoid them. Also, a low volatility market is tough to trade. Earnings growth has been slowing. If oil prices continue to stay high, earnings warnings may pick-up later in Sep. So, there may be a substantial pull-back, in the market, over the next month or so. Both the Dow and Nasdaq are just below their primary downtrend lines (see first two charts in Chart Room). If the Dow can break and stay above that line, then the market may rally to recent highs. However, the market may need to correct first. Quadtruple witching tomorrow along with Max Pain expirations, and end of the quarter window dressing may skew stock prices. I plan to keep the QQQ Nov puts in case QQQ falls over one point. INTC is relatively undervalued and the 2005 calls seem safe. I'll update the Top Stock Picks tonight.
My portfolio is over $815,000 including over $600,000 in cash.
Calls Contracts
INTC Jan 20 2005 300
INTC Apr 22.5 2005 300
RMBS Jan 15 2005 20
PSFT Jan 17.5 2005 40
Puts Contracts
QQQ Oct 36 2004 400
QQQ Nov 36 2004 400
OIH Jan 80 2005 20
Portfolio at $500,000 on Jul 1st, 2003 |
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