PeakTrader.com

[arthur]

Sep 16th Trading Log (Recap and Fri Trading Plan):

I missed an excellent opportunity to make huge gains with EBAY puts today. However, it was uncertain if EBAY would finish the week at over 95 or pull-back, even though Max Pain Expirations work over half the time. It was possible that I could have taken huge losses instead. Both the Dow and Nasdaq are just below their primary downtrend lines (see first two charts in Chart Room). If the Dow can break and stay above that line, then the market may rally to recent highs. However, the market may need to correct first. End of quarter window dressing may keep the market high. However, earnings growth may continue to slow. So, the market may fall before earnings season in Oct, perhaps in late Sep if earnings warnings pick-up. I plan to keep the QQQ Nov puts in case QQQ falls over one point. INTC is relatively undervalued and the 2005 calls seem safe. I'll add more info tonight.

My portfolio is about $820,000 including over $600,000 in cash.

Calls Contracts

INTC Jan 20 2005 300
INTC Apr 22.5 2005 300
RMBS Jan 15 2005 20
PSFT Jan 17.5 2005 40

Puts Contracts

QQQ Oct 36 2004 400
QQQ Nov 36 2004 400
OIH Jan 80 2005 20

Portfolio at $500,000 on Jul 1st, 2003