arthur Guest
|
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:36 pm Post subject: Sep 13th Trading Log (Recap and Tue Trading Plan) |
|
|
Sep 13th Trading Log (Recap and Tue Trading Plan):
Basically, I bought heavy positions in QQQ puts, on bounces, sold some on dips, traded EBAY puts, and bought INTC calls on pullbacks. The Retail Sales report before the open tomorrow should move the market. Also, ORCL reports earnings after the close tomorrow. Moreover, the path of hurricane Ivan may influence oil prices, which may influence the major indices. The Nasdaq Oscillator may be well over 50 (it's updated an hour after the close on page one of Chart Room), which is overbought. Also, both Nasdaq and NYSE TRINs have been low without much movement over the past week or so. VIX and VXN (Volatility Indices) are near 2004 lows. The TICK 100 unit MA is still above its 200 unit MA, and both MAs are at high levels. It seems, the market should pullback short-term or at least become more volatile. If the economic reports this week are strong and oil prices fall, then the Dow could rally over 200 points short-term (The Dow hasn't rallied much recently, while Nasdaq has caught up). So, I plan to buy INTC long-term calls on dips and hedge with QQQ Oct puts on bounces. Also, EBAY may complete a double-top at over 94, which may be an opportunity to buy Sep 95 puts.
My portfolio is about $810,000 including about $570,000 in cash.
Calls Contracts
INTC Jan 20 2005 100
INTC Apr 22.5 2005 200
PSFT Jan 17.5 2005 20
Puts Contracts
QQQ Oct 35 2004 800
QQQ Oct 36 2004 800
OIH Jan 80 2005 20
EBAY Sep 95 2004 20
EBAY Oct 85 2004 100
EBAY Oct 90 2004 100
Portfolio at $500,000 on Jul 1st, 2003 |
|