arthur Guest
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Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2005 3:35 pm Post subject: SPX and Nasdaq Hourly Charts |
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The hourly charts, since late Dec, show SPX and Nasdaq created gaps in late Jan (gaps both down and up, on both indices, or island reversals). Nasdaq has generally underpeformed SPX, although the semiconductors led Nasdaq higher Fri. The strong price movements Fri may indicate short-covering, since volume wasn't strong. Consequently, the market may easily fall lower early next week. SPX major resistance is at 1,217 (double top), although it may have overshot resistance at 1,200 (on short-covering over the last hour). Major support is at 1,192 and then 1,185. Nasdaq resistance is at 2,100 (QQQQ is a quarter point from closing the gap at 38]. Nasdaq is not that far from the late Jan gap. Many of the technical indicators (e.g. the bottom four charts on page five of Chart Room) are severely overbought. However, it's possible the market will have a "blow-off" top, trapping the bears before falling hard.
The SPX weekly chart shows the middle of the Bollinger Bands held (i.e. 20 week MA). The Parabolic SAR (red dots) doesn't show a buy signal (SPX would need to rise above 1,214). Volume was lighter this week than last week, although SPX gained over 31 points. I suspect, the trading range will continue. "Stealth" rallies (and sell-offs) are tough to trade, because prices move slow and then accelerate (also, a low volatility market is tough to trade).
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