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Joined: 28 Dec 2005 Posts: 11981
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Posted: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:13 am Post subject: Next Week Trading (Nov 26th - Updated) |
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Next Week Trading (Nov 26th - Updated)
The daily NYMO has been my most reliable technical indicator, over past 20 + years, although it has sometimes failed. However, typically, when it failed, the market soon snapped back strongly or became a forgiving trading market through much higher volatility to manage risk. When the daily NYMO is below negative 50, you typically don't want to be short and there's a high probability of a bounce or rally. The daily NYMO fell below negative 50 a week ago and rose above negative 40 yesterday. Today, it fell 31 1/2 points to below negative 70. There was a slight market bounce, but fell today. At this point, I'd expect a market bounce Monday, although it could fall lower. On Monday, I'll start buying small positions in puts, if market bounces, or buy slightly larger positions in calls, if market falls further, depending how much market rises or falls. I'll be looking at QQQ MSFT SMH and NVDA January puts, and DIA SPY SLB BABA and PDD January calls.
My portfolio is at $385,000 including $329,200 in cash.
Calls Contracts-Shares Long
PDD Jan 65 2022 20
BABA Jan 140 2022 20
SLB Jan 32.5 2022 100
Puts Contracts-Shares Short
NVDA Jan 350 2022 2
Portfolio at $100,000 on March 1st, 2018. Portfolio stop loss suspended. Scaled up and adjusted portfolio. Both prior portfolios, since early 2000s, rose initially and substantially, and then failed quickly in “irrational” market “melt-ups," where stocks can go straight up month after month. |
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