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Next Week Trading (Aug 24th):

Over the past 13 months, HAL has declined from 55 to below 18. At some point, it will hit a “hard floor” and bounce big. If it’s close to that floor, it’ll bounce to the low to mid 20s quickly. If it continues to fall, the bounce will be bigger. Also, I expect volatility. The Oct and Jan 20 calls have become much cheaper. I’ll also be looking at weekly 17.5 or 18 calls, that expire after Friday. If SPY opens low, I’ll buy weekly calls and if TLT rises, buy weekly puts. Stop loss lowered. Addition: HAL could fall to around 16 short-term, based on prior falls with high standard errors, but then bounce seven or eight points within a month.

My portfolio is about $470,000 including $145,700 in cash.

Calls Contracts-Shares Long

GE Jan 10 2020 600
TLRY Sep 30 2019 20
HAL Oct 20 2019 800
HAL Jan 20 2020 800
HAL Jan 25 2020 3,000

Puts Contracts-Shares Short

TLT Sep 145 2019 100
TLT Oct 145 2019 400

Portfolio at $100,000 on March 1st, 2018. Portfolio stop loss lowered to $300,000. Scaled up and adjusted portfolio. Both prior portfolios, since the early 2000s, rose initially and substantially, and then failed quickly in “irrational” market “melt-ups.”