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The two-year chart shows the NYMO 20 and 50 day MAs compared to SPX. The 2 1/2 month chart (or roughly 50 trading days) shows the daily NYMO, along with its 20 and 50 day MAs.

Over the past 15 trading days, the daily NYMO has averaged roughly negative 75. I suspect, there aren't many investors left who want to sell. Yet, the economic data remain too negative to buy into the market. Nonetheless, with few who want to sell and over $9 trillion in cash on the sidelines, once the market begins to rally, investors may buy for fear of missing the rally.

The NYMO MAs suggest a capitulation is unlikely, and the market is already low, although a one-day V-shaped market move shouldn't be ruled out. Perhaps, SPX will fall slightly below 650 and then begin to rally. There may be greater volatility, until Mar options expire in two weeks.