arthur Guest
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Posted: Fri Nov 19, 2004 6:29 pm Post subject: SPX charts |
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The first chart is an up-to-date SPX 13 month daily chart and the second chart is a SPX monthly chart (from last week, since the Fibonacci levels weren't accurate when I tried to update the chart).
The first chart reflects the typical strong seasonal pattern. However, SPX rallied sharply and early this year compared to most years, after consolidating over much of 2004. The 20 day MA is at its highest level in over a year. Also, the 20 day MA bounced off the 50 day MA recently.
The second chart shows SPX rallied significantly above the multi-year Fibonacci level, at 1,160, which may now be strong support. Moreover, the 80 month MA at 1,163 together with the Fibonacci level strengthens the support level.
Therefore, I tend to believe, SPX will pause, perhaps for a few weeks, holding 1,160 and then rally to 1,253 (61.8% Fibonacci level) to 1,316 (previous high), perhaps in Dec or Jan (or before May). SPX has gaps to close at 1,163 and 1,137. However, it may take weeks or months for gaps to close, and the 1,137 gap may not close until early next year. However, a close below 1,160 would lead me to believe SPX will fall further, e.g. to 1,137 or below 1,100.
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