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Joined: 28 Dec 2005 Posts: 11965
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Posted: Fri May 12, 2006 7:11 pm Post subject: NYSE Summation Index |
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The chart below shows the daily SPX (black line and right scale) with its 200-day MA (green line) and the daily NYSE Summation Index (or NYSI, red line and left scale). NYSI has been making lower highs and lower lows over most of the cyclical bull market. Consequently, NYSI suggests SPX has not bottomed and may bottom below the 200-day MA in June.
Also, above the price chart is the NYSE Oscillator 50-day MA (or NYMO) that shows a high positive correlation with the daily NYSI. NYMO closed slightly below negative 10 and may bottom below negative 20 in June. So, both the daily NYSI and the NYMO 50-day MA suggest SPX will fall further.
Moreover, below the price chart are the CBOE Put/Call (or CPC) 200-day MA and the SPX Volatility Index (or VIX) 200-day MA, which have generally offset each other, although the bullish CPC has generally prevailed over the bearish VIX. Consequently, SPX pullbacks may continue to be limited.
SPX major support is around 1,250, i.e. 200-day MA, 2006 low, and a multi-year Fibonacci level (at 1,246). Also, shorter-term, there's significant support around 1,275 (previous support and resistance). Next week is an options expiration week, which are typically bullish. However, caution may be best after next week.
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