Joined: 28 Dec 2005
|Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2006 4:46 pm Post subject: Trading Letter to the Editor
|Yes, I'm sure you know,
there are uptrends, downtrends, and flattrends. Also,
short, intermediate, and long term trends. I tend to
take advantage of volatility, often too much, and then
miss the big trend moves. I've done this over and
over, because I'm not confident in my own predictions,
which turn out to be right most of the time. I've
made adjustments to hold options longer, although not
long enough to make larger gains more consistently.
I've been concerned about holding options even longer,
because if volatility picks-up, more trading, of both
calls and puts, is required (for example OIH fell from
155 to 145 and then rose to 155 again within three
days last week!). It seems, the market is always
trying to put you off balance.
> Not to sound too oversimplistic, but everything
> tends to trend including
> They don't lower, lower, lower, then raise, lower,
> raise etc.
> In addition, I've done enough reading to know pros
> have had dismal track
> in predicting how far Fed goes either way.
> I firmly believe you can still make loads of $
> reacting, yet so many chose
> to try
> and predict. The volatility inherent in that reality
> will make you bridge
> parters with
> Buffett in no time.